There was no recovery. The average American is going to deleverage from their current mountain of debt and we will have a slowdown, we HAVE to. You cannot accumulate debt forever, at some point you must deleverage. The signs are all here.
Go back and look at news headlines from July 2008-August 2008. The similarities to todays' are scary...we are on the verge of another recession, but this time there is no backstop/stimulus/Quantitative easing to ease the pain. We are more indebted now and therefore the risks to the downside are greater...
You want to see something interesting...
July 2008 - 1 month before absolute panic
Goldman Sachs: 20% chance of a full blown world recession
July 2011 - 1 month before ????
Goldman Economist Sees Rebound, but Risks of Recession Rising
"Goldman's Hatzius sees 15-20% chance of renewed recession"
Panic at the White House? Gloomy Goldman Sachs sees high unemployment, possible recession
"But the slowdown of recent months goes well beyond what can be explained with these temporary effects. … final demand growth has slowed to a pace that is typically only seen in recessions. .. Moreover, if the economy returns to recession—not our forecast, but clearly a possibility given the recent numbers … "
